Daily Review 25 Jun 2025
U.S. stocks rose for a second day (Dow +1.19%, S&P +1.11%, Nasdaq +1.43%) as markets reacted positively to easing tensions between Israel and Iran and looked for signals in Powell’s speech about future Fed policy. The rally came even after U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. Meanwhile, June consumer confidence unexpectedly dropped, hinting at a weaker job market. UST 10Y yield fell 5.2 bps to 4.296%, while the USD Index dropped 0.5% to 98.85.
Commodities closed lowered on Tuesday: Coal -2.7% to USD109.9/ton, as weak demand from China and India, combined with rising Chinese exports, pressured the market; CPO -3.37% to MYR3,986/ton, as Malaysian output rose on favorable weather and rival vegetable oils fell, adding to global supply pressure; Brent Oil -6.07% to USD67.14/bbl, settling at a two-week low as the Israel-Iran ceasefire reduced supply risk; Gold -1.03% to USD3,322/oz, hitting a two-week low as the ceasefire weakened safe-haven demand.
Asian markets closed mixed on Tuesday (Kospi +2.96%, Hang Seng +2.06%, Shanghai +1.15%, Nikkei +1.14%) after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. JCI gained +1.21% to 6,869.2, led by IDX Property and top movers BBCA, BBRI, and BMRI, despite IDR940.9 bn in foreign outflows.
Asian markets opened slightly higher on Wednesday (Kospi +0.11%, Nikkei +0.02%) as investors weighed whether the Israel-Iran ceasefire will last and reacted to new comments from the Fed. A U.S. intelligence report said recent missile strikes didn’t hit Iran’s main nuclear sites, though the White House disagreed. We expect JCI to end flat today, as optimism from the Israel‑Iran ceasefire and the Fed’s steady-rate signals are offset by caution over U.S. strikes missing Iran’s nuclear sites, weak commodity prices, and continued foreign outflows.